wicked problems: ecuador’s wildfires
Readings:
H. W. J. Rittel, M. M. Webber, Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning (1973). [pdf]
T. C. Schelling, Micromotives and Macrobehavior, Ch. 1: Introduction (1978). [pdf]
As an Ecuadorian, it is crucial to interpret this week's readings through the lens of my country’s current challenges, particularly the severe wildfires and energy outages affecting Ecuador.
Issue: Wildfires and Energy Outages in Ecuador
The concept of wicked problems is vividly illustrated by some of the most pressing issues facing the Global South, including the recent wildfires in Ecuador. These fires have not only devastated the landscape but have also ignited intense political debates, exposing the deep socio-political divisions within the country. As flames consumed wealthy neighborhoods in the capital, many chose not to participate in controlling the fires. This political stance of disengagement resonated with marginalized communities, who viewed the destruction in affluent areas as a form of karmic retribution. The perception of the fires as a zero-sum game underscores the extent of societal divisions, with some expressing grim satisfaction at the hardships faced by the wealthy.
This polarized response exemplifies the nature of wicked problems—complex issues with no straightforward solutions, deeply entangled in conflicting values and perspectives. The wildfires, far from being a mere environmental crisis, have become a flashpoint for long-standing grievances and political animosities. Instead of uniting people in a shared tragedy, the disaster has deepened existing societal fault lines, highlighting the chaotic qualities inherent in such problems. These challenges cannot be addressed in isolation, as they are interwoven with broader socio-economic and political dynamics.
Analogy to the Prisoner’s Dilemma
The response to the wildfires in Ecuador can be understood through the lens of micro and macro behaviors, analogous to the dynamics of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. At the micro level, individual and community actions reflect a range of motivations, from self-preservation to political protest. Cooperation, at this scale, would have resulted in a united effort to control the fires, minimizing damage and economic fallout. However, socio-political divisions led many individuals and communities to prioritize their own narratives and grievances over the common good. At the macro level, these micro behaviors aggregate into a broader societal trend where collective inaction becomes the norm. This macro behavior—marked by widespread disengagement and fragmentation—amplifies the crisis, demonstrating how systemic issues, such as historical inequalities and political disenchantment, shape and reinforce individual choices. Despite knowing that not helping would harm the country’s economy—impacting tourism, agriculture, and infrastructure—various groups chose to "defect" from collective action as a way to highlight systemic inequalities. This disjointed response showcases how macro-level socio-political conditions can influence micro-level decisions, resulting in a vicious cycle of disengagement and exacerbating the very challenges that require collective effort to resolve.
Contextualizing with the General Theory of Planning
As highlighted in Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning the pluralistic nature of Ecuadorian society makes it extremely difficult to define and address problems in a unified way. Ecuadorian economist and intellectual Alberto Acosta suggests that this lack of a shared vision for the common good stems from Ecuador’s history as a victim of American imperialism. He argues that Harry Truman's notion of progress, which was imposed on Ecuador, clashed with the country’s indigenous epistemology and values, creating a disconnect between imposed development models and the local context.
The wildfires can be seen as a consequence of this clash, highlighting the limitations of such models in addressing complex, interconnected crises. These challenges call for solutions that acknowledge the pluralistic and interconnected nature of modern societies, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach.
The Role of Simulations in Understanding Wicked Problems
In this context, simulations can be invaluable for understanding and managing the chaotic nature of wicked problems. They can model not only the physical spread of wildfires but also the socio-political consequences, exploring how these types of socio-political narratives gain traction and how different policy responses might mitigate or exacerbate tensions. For a country like Ecuador, where political allegiances often feel like a zero-sum game, simulations provide a way to experiment with different crisis management strategies in a virtual space. This can help policymakers craft responses that address both the immediate crisis and the deeper societal issues it exposes, offering a more nuanced and comprehensive approach to navigating the complexities of such situations.
